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Early predictions from an international sports rating agency suggest Canada will be hard-pressed to beat its 14 gold medals in Vancouver.
Paul Chiasson / THE CANADIAN PRESS
An internation sports rating organization predicts Canada will win 11 gold medals in Sochi, including one by short-track speed skater Charles Hamelin.
What does Canada do for an encore?
It’s never easy for athletes coming off a home Olympic Games to do as well at the next Olympics. But Canada has set a goal at these Sochi Olympics of eclipsing the performance set in Vancouver in 2010.
“No nation has ever done that,” Anne Merklinger, CEO of Own the Podium, told the Star’s Kerry Gillespie last month. “It’s important that we continue to improve as a nation, that we win more medals from Games to Games.”
Own the Podium is Canada’s funding program for medal-contending athletes.
Canada won a whopping 14 gold medals in Vancouver, outpacing the United States, which won only nine gold.
In total, Canada won 26 medals. Own the Podium’s mission at Sochi is to contend for No. 1 in total medals.
Early predictions from an international sports rating agency suggest Canada will be hard-pressed to beat its 14 gold medals in Vancouver.
Infostradasports has predicted 11 gold for Canada this time, ranking this country No. 3 behind the United States (16) and Norway (14).
However, the sports agency predicts Canada’s total medal output will climb to 33 medals, which would outpace the 26 total medals won in Vancouver. Those 26 medals in 2010 placed Canada third behind the U.S. with 37 and Germany with 30.
With 33 predicted medals overall this time, Canada is expected to rise above that third-place finish in Vancouver and jump to No. 2 at Sochi behind Norway (37) but ahead of the United States (29) and Germany (29).
Austria is projected to win 22 overall medals and host country Russia 17.
In fourth place behind No. 3 Canada in the gold-medal count is expected to be Russia with six.
The Netherlands, South Korea and France are projected to collect five golds each, followed by Sweden and China with four.
Rounding out the top countries are Australia (three gold), Japan (two gold), Sweden (two gold), Italy (two gold) and Slovakia (two gold).
Who are Canada’s gold contenders? This may surprise you.
Neither the Canadian men’s nor women’s hockey teams are projected to hit the top of the podium. The sports rating agency Infostradasports predicts silver for both teams.
The news that superstar Tampa Bay Lightning forward Steven Stamkos has pulled out of the Olympics because his broken leg hasn’t completely healed is considered a setback. However, the ratings came out before Stamkos made the announcement and before teammate Martin St. Louis was named as his replacement.
In any case, Infostrada does not use a model based on individual talent for team sports. It uses a statistical model that factors in results on the world stage, including previous the previous Olympics in Vancouver and other international events such as the world championships. The projections are also based on international rankings.
For individual athletes, a recent result is worth more than a past result.
The U.S. women are expected to win gold in hockey, while Sweden is predicted to win the gold in men’s hockey.
Here are the 11 gold medals the sports agency says Canada will win:
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