Conservative Leader Alison Redford or Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith: Albertans heading to the polls in historic election

Voters in Alberta head to the polls in the provincial general election on Monday, April 23, 2012.

View larger image Alberta Conservative Leader Alison Redford casts her ballot in the provincial election at a polling station in Calgary on Monday, April 23, 2012. (Jeff McIntosh / THE CANADIAN PRESS)  View larger image Returning officers look on as Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith puts her ballot into the voters box at a polling station in High River, Alberta to cast her ballot for the Alberta election Monday, April, 23, 2012. (Jonathan Hayward / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Updated: Mon Apr. 23 2012 12:11:46

The voter turnout is expected to be high Monday, as Albertans make their way to the polls in what could be a historic election.
"It's never been this close...I don't remember it ever being this close in Alberta, so it is exciting," said Marian Kwasnitza, who cast her ballot early Monday.
A number of returning officers with Elections Alberta say voters have been coming in at a steady pace all morning.
There's been plenty of interest in the four-week campaign and every vote will count as Alison Redford tries to hold onto the PC political dynasty that has lasted 41 years. The PC Leader is remaining optimistic, as she headed out early Monday, hand-in-hand with her daughter to cast her ballot in her Calgary-Elbow constituency.
"A little bit of nervousness this morning -- you wake up and you realize that the polls will be closing and there will be a future decided but very proud of our campaign and our candidates and proud of my family," said PC Leader Alison Redford.

The latest public opinion surveys show the Wildrose with 41 per cent support amongst decided voters.
Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith cast her ballot in her High River riding Monday morning. She did not speak with reporters, but on Sunday was predicting as many as 25 ridings will be won or lost by just a handful of votes.
A "Think HQ Survey" for CTV News shows the PC's have 33 per cent, with the NDP and Liberals at 11 per cent apiece.
Leaders of the four main parties have shared in one message, for Albertans to get out and vote.
"We're probably the underdog teams here and that's why I ask people if you're not sure park you're vote with us, we'll be there for you before and after the election," said Liberal Leader Raj Sherman Monday morning.
The New Democrats are looking to hold on to their two seats in Edmonton held by Brian Mason and Rachel Notley.
Mason told media he was feeling confident as he cast his ballot Monday.
"I always believe people should vote for what they believe in and not what they don't believe in to stop something worse," he said.
The polls close Monday at 8 p.m.
Stay with CTV Edmonton for election coverage, which begins just as the polls close.

 

 

Questions linger as Alberta heads to the polls

High voter turnout and narrow races are expected as Albertans head to the polls Monday, with a 41-year Progressive Conservative dynasty in the balance.
The election has been a tumultuous four-week ride, one that saw Wildrose burst out of the gate, take a lead on the PCs, and then see its poll numbers tumble back down amid questions about two controversial candidates and leader Danielle Smith's view on climate change.

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Heading into Monday evening, though, pollsters agree Wildrose maintains a lead and is on pace for a majority or minority government. Sources in both the PC and Wildrose camps say each party believes it will win a full majority.
Several questions loom over the outcome.
The rural split
Wildrose is presumed to win most rural ridings. Ms. Smith consistently speaks to packed audiences in small towns, and a series of PC controversies - a committee that didn't meet but paid its members, new power lines, a land-use law, deficits - play particularly poorly among rural voters, who make up roughly a third of the electorate. Wildrose is, however, strongest in the south, and the PCs are hoping for a split by holding the line halfway through the province, as Wildrose's numbers sag in rural northern Alberta. If the PCs are successful, they could eat away at much of the Wildrose base; if they aren't, Wildrose will all but clinch its majority.
The Calgary question
The city has 25 seats, with half a dozen or more in nearby bedroom communities - and all but a handful are two-horse races between the PCs and Wildrose, one of which will form the government. If Calgary sways overwhelmingly from one to the other, it could decide the election. Calgary has traditionally been a Tory bastion, home to Ms. Redford and former premiers Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed. But polls have shown Wildrose opening up a lead in the province's biggest city.
Voter Turnout
After dipping to a historic low of 40.6 per cent in 2008, voter turnout is expected to soar in Monday's vote - lineups were long early Monday in many ridings. Who benefits from this is unclear - high voter turnout is typically bad for an incumbent, but Wildrose is the presumed victor. Both parties have hoped for a higher turnout, but it may help Wildrose more in rural ridings and the PCs more in cities, particularly Edmonton, where many ridings are four-way races but where recent polls show the PCs have a lead. The record for voter turnout is 81 per cent, set in 1935.
The undecideds
A recent poll showed roughly one-in-five Albertans remained undecided about their pick - an exceptionally high number this late in a race. As their pencil hovers over a ballot, undecided voters will mostly face a choice between extending a venerable PC dynasty or turning to a new party, despite its recent gaffes. Polls have shown the PCs with a slight edge over Wildrose among undecided voters.
The leaders
The leader with the safest seat, paradoxically, is considered to be New Democrat Brian Mason. Liberal Leader Raj Sherman, PC Leader Alison Redford and Ms. Smith have all faced questions during the campaign about whether they'll win their seat. A poor party showing combined with the loss of a seat could spell disaster for a party leader. Nonetheless, all are considered the favourites to win their seats.
The other parties
The Liberals and New Democrats aren't likely to take more than a dozen seats combined, but that could be the difference between a majority or minority for the PCs or Wildrose. However, a strong showing by the Liberals and New Democrats poses a bigger problem to the PCs - a Liberal or NDP surge eats up seats in centrist Edmonton, a city the Tories say they need to do well in if they're to form the government.
What the guru says
Four years ago, pollster Janet Brown famously predicted Ed Stelmach's sweeping majority at a time when others thought he was in a close battle. This time around, she is predicting a Wildrose majority of between 50 and 60 of the province's 87 seats.
There are caveats, though, that make it tough to predict.
"There are probably at least half of the seats that are too close to call, and vote splits are much more of a serious concern," Ms. Brown says, though she's sticking to her projection. "The PCs getting more seats than the Wildrose - it's very hard to do the math on that. I've got six polls telling me the Wildrose ahead, so I'm just going to stick with what the polls say."
The polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

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