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Saturday, July 30, 2011

U.S. DEBT TALKS DEADLINE: Boehner vs. Reid bills: Where they meet




NEW YORK.- There certainly are some big differences between the debt-ceiling bill proposed by House Speaker John Boehner and the one proposed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.


But there is also more than $900 billion's worth of compromise between the two.

Both bills call for caps on discretionary spending -- that's the money Washington uses to pay for defense and all manner of government agencies and programs.

Excluding spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Boehner bill would reduce overall spending by $917 billion over 10 years, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. Similarly, Reid's bill would cut spending by $927 billion.

Breaking those estimates down further, Boehner's bill would cut discretionary spending by $756 billion and save $156 billion in interest costs on the debt. The comparable numbers for Reid's bill are $752 billion and $153 billion.

Both bills also ignore the hot-potato issues of tax and entitlement reform.

So why can't these two bills get along?

There are some major sticking points.

Boehner's plan: The House bill would call for a two-stage increase in the debt ceiling. The first would be worth $900 billion, which might cover the Treasury Department's borrowing needs into early 2012.

But the House bill would set two high hurdles that would have to be cleared before increasing the debt ceiling by another $1.6 trillion -- which could cover borrowing needs past the presidential elections into 2013 .

Spending cuts to whack economy?

First, Congress would have to approve $1.8 trillion worth of debt-reduction proposals by the end of this year. Those proposals would be made by a joint committee the bill would create and no amendments would be permitted.

In addition, to secure the second debt ceiling increase Congress would have to enact a balanced budget amendment by a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate, which is very difficult to secure.

Overall, Boehner's bill would increase the debt ceiling by a total of $2.5 trillion in exchange for $2.7 trillion in debt reduction.

Reid's plan: By contrast, Reid's bill as amended would set a procedure to raise the debt ceiling by $416 right away and two more times after that for a total debt ceiling increase of $2.4 trillion, in exchange for $2.2 trillion in debt reduction.

Reid's cuts count roughly $1.3 trillion in war savings in Iraq and Afghanistan, including debt service costs. But those savings can only be claimed if one assumes that U.S. engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue at full throttle for the next decade, which is not realistic.

Like Boehner's bill, Reid's legislation would create a joint committee but it would be charged with proposing ways to reduce annual deficits to 3% or less of gross domestic product. And while the Senate would have to vote on those proposals without amendment, there is no requirement the proposals be enacted.
The House approved the Boehner bill on Friday evening in a 218-210 vote; 22 Republicans voted against it and no Democrats voted for it. But the Senate then promptly voted to table it. That was expected, since 53 senators on Thursday said that if presented with the Boehner bill they would vote against it.

It's also not at all clear that Reid's plan will pass the Senate, which is scheduled to vote on it at 1 am Sunday.

Presuming both measures fail to generate sufficient support in one or both chambers, lawmakers will have to get serious about striking a real compromise between the parties and the two chambers.

At the rate they're going they may have mere hours to do so before the government's borrowing authority is fully exhausted on Tuesday

Senate Democrats block Boehner debt ceiling plan after House approval
 
House Speaker John Boehner's plan to raise the nation's debt ceiling and slash government spending narrowly passed his chamber on Friday and then was blocked by Senate Democrats, setting up a weekend of negotiations to seek a deal that would avoid a potential federal default next week.


The Senate vote was 59-41 to table the measure, which effectively kills it unless Democrats decide to bring it up again.

Earlier, Boehner's proposal was approved by the House in a sharply polarized 218-210 vote that was delayed by a day while the speaker rounded up support from wary tea party conservatives. No Democrats supported the measure, and 22 of the 240 members of the Republican majority also opposed it.

Even though it was blocked in the Senate, the Boehner plan now is the Republican negotiating position for hammering out a deal with congressional Democrats and President Barack Obama to avert a possible government default next week.

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John Boehner

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However, no face-to-face talks were scheduled, with Democrats accusing Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of refusing to negotiate and McConnell in turn seeking a chance for his caucus to reject a proposal offered by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid as a vehicle for compromise.

Democratic and Republican sources familiar with the situation told CNN that McConnell insists the White House be present in further negotiations toward a debt ceiling deal.

In a continuation of the political theater that has characterized the negotiations so far, the House scheduled a vote on the Reid plan for Saturday -- before the Senate will even begin considering it -- as what appeared to be payback for the rejection by Senate Democrats of the Boehner proposal.

Reid, meanwhile, said the Senate will likely vote to take up his plan at 1 a.m. Sunday ET as part of the procedural path required to get something passed in coming days.

As the political maneuvering continues, the clock continues to tick down. If Congress fails to raise the current $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by August 2, Americans could face rising interest rates and a declining dollar, among other problems.

Some financial experts have warned of a downgrade of America's triple-A credit rating and a potential stock market plunge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped for a sixth straight day on Friday.

Without an increase in the debt limit, the federal government will not be able to pay all its bills next month. Obama recently indicated he can't guarantee Social Security checks will be mailed out on time.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta issued a statement Friday to remind military personnel that they should plan to come to work next week as scheduled, regardless of whether a deal gets worked out. Panetta pledged to do "everything possible to ensure that our national defense is protected."

A Department of Defense official told on condition of not being identified that on the possibility of military pay being withheld, "it's not a question of whether, but when, if an agreement isn't reached."

Friday's House vote was a critical test of Boehner's control over his tea party-infused GOP caucus. The speaker was forced to quell a right-wing revolt over the measure after a number of members complained that it doesn't do enough to shrink the size of government and stem the tide of Washington's red ink.

Boehner, R-Ohio, managed to sway several of those members by including a provision requiring congressional passage of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution before the debt ceiling can be extended through the end of 2012.

In his floor speech before the vote, Boehner called the proposal imperfect but necessary, and he criticized Obama and congressional Democrats for rejecting all deficit reduction measures passed by the House so far.

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John McCain taking on the tea party? "We've tried to do our level best ... but some people continue to say no," Boehner said, adding: "I stuck my neck out a mile to try to get an agreement with the president of the United States."

His voice rising to a shout, Boehner continued to cheers and applause from fellow Republicans: "It is time for this administration and the other party across the aisle -- put something on the table. Tell us where you are."

Democratic leaders vehemently object both to the balanced budget amendment and the requirement of a second debt ceiling vote before the next election. They argue that reaching bipartisan agreement on another debt ceiling hike during an election year could be nearly impossible, and that short-term extensions of the limit could further destabilize the economy.

Earlier in the day, Obama urged Senate Democrats and Republicans to take the lead in the congressional deliberations.

Boehner's plan "has no chance of becoming law," Obama said. "The time for putting party first is over. The time for compromise on behalf of the American people is now. ... It's important for everybody to step up and show the leadership that the American people expect."

"This is not a situation where the two parties are miles apart," the president insisted. But "we are almost out of time."

Obama urged Americans to contact their members of Congress "to keep the pressure on Washington." Phone lines on Capitol Hill were jammed Friday as people from coast to coast tried to weigh in on the debate.

Meanwhile, Reid, D-Nevada, has been pushing his own plan to raise the debt limit, though he will need to win over at least seven Senate Republicans to win the 60 votes necessary to overcome a certain filibuster.

Reid announced Friday morning that he intended to "take action" on a Senate bill by the end of the day. Later, he complained on the Senate floor that Republicans would effectively filibuster his proposal by requiring a 60-vote super-majority in the 100-member chamber to support the start of debate on it. It was unclear when Reid would attempt to hold that vote, and he warned it could as late as 1 a.m. ET Sunday.

Reid also blasted Boehner's decision to include a mandatory balanced budget amendment provision in the GOP plan, calling the addition of "even more stuff in this right-wing leaning bill. ... It's really hard to comprehend."

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, accused Boehner of "adding all kinds of unrealistic poison pills to his plan."

But McConnell, R-Kentucky, argued Senate Democrats were doing little to actually resolve the crisis.

"I would suggest to my friends on the other side ... that they start taking their responsibilities as a majority party a little more seriously, because at this point, the only people who are disregarding the consequences of default are Senate Democrats -- not the Republicans in the House -- but them," McConnell said. In a statement after the House vote, McConnell said: "I eagerly await the majority leader's plan for preventing this crisis."

Leaders of both parties now agree that any deal to raise the debt ceiling should include long-term spending reductions to help control spiraling deficits. But they differ sharply on both the nature and timetable of the cuts.

Despite the strong partisan rhetoric, there have been signs of a growing recognition of a need for further compromise. Earlier this week, McConnell called for renewed negotiations with Obama, and indicated that his party must be willing to move away from some of its demands.

Sources close to the negotiations have also told that Vice President Joe Biden is very much in the mix of back-channel conversations on a possible fallback position.

White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley told Thursday that, presuming the Boehner plan wins House approval and gets blocked in the Senate, the next step is for everyone "to take a step back in the Congress and look at where is a point of compromise."

Daley said that similarities between the Boehner and Reid plans "may be the grounds for a deal that, hopefully, both parties can pass."

Both plans suffered setbacks earlier this week when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released reports concluding that they fell short of their stated deficit reduction goals.

Boehner's plan, which has since been revised, proposed generating a total of $917 billion in savings while initially raising the debt ceiling by $900 billion. The speaker has pledged to match any debt ceiling hike with dollar-for-dollar spending cuts.

His plan, however, would require a second vote by Congress to raise the debt ceiling by a combined $2.5 trillion -- enough to last through the end of 2012. It would create a special congressional committee to recommend additional savings of $1.6 trillion or more.

Any failure on the part of Congress to enact mandated spending reductions or abide by new spending caps would trigger automatic across-the-board budget cuts.

The plan, as amended Friday, also calls for congressional passage of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution before the second vote to raise the debt ceiling, which would likely be required at some point during the winter.

As for Reid's plan, a revised version he proposed Friday would reduce deficits over the next decade by $2.4 trillion and raise the debt ceiling by a similar amount. It includes $1 trillion in savings based on the planned U.S. withdrawals from military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Reid's plan also would establish a congressional committee made up of 12 House and Senate members to consider additional options for debt reduction. The committee's proposals would be guaranteed by a Senate vote with no amendments by the end of the year.

In addition, it incorporates a process based on proposal by McConnell that would give Obama the authority to raise the debt ceiling in two steps while providing Congress the opportunity to vote its disapproval.

Among other things, Reid has stressed that his plan meets the key GOP demand for no additional taxes. Boehner, however, argued this week that Reid's plan fails to tackle popular entitlement programs such as Medicare, which are among the biggest drivers of the debt.

A recent CNN/ORC International Poll reveals a growing public exasperation and demand for compromise. Sixty-four percent of respondents to a July 18-20 survey preferred a deal with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Only 34% preferred a debt reduction plan based solely on spending reductions.

According to the poll, the public is sharply divided along partisan lines; Democrats and independents are open to a number of different approaches because they think a failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause a major crisis for the country. Republicans, however, draw the line at tax increases, and a narrow majority of them oppose raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances.



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